Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

Post by Dardedar »

From FiveThirtyEight

Excerpt:

"...voter initiatives to ban gay marriage are becoming harder and harder to pass every year.

I looked at the 30 instances in which a state has attempted to pass a constitutional ban on gay marriage by voter initiative... I then built a regression model that looked at a series of political and demographic variables in each of these states and attempted to predict the percentage of the vote that the marriage ban would receive.

It turns out that you can build a very effective model by including just three variables:

1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon;
2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives;
3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.

These variables collectively account for about three-quarters of the variance in the performance of marriage bans in different states. The model predicts, for example, that a marriage ban in California in 2008 would have passed with 52.1 percent of the vote, almost exactly the fraction actually received by Proposition 8.

Unsurprisingly, there is a very strong correspondence between the religiosity of a state and its propensity to ban gay marriage, with a particular "bonus" effect depending on the number of white evangelicals in the state.

Marriage bans, however, are losing ground at a rate of slightly less than 2 points per year. So, for example, we'd project that a state in which a marriage ban passed with 60 percent of the vote last year would only have 58 percent of its voters approve the ban this year.

All of the other variables that I looked at -- race, education levels, party registration, etc. -- either did not appear to matter at all, or became redundant once we accounted for religiosity.

Below are the dates when the model predicts that each of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban. Asterisks indicate states which had previously passed amendments to ban gay marriage.

2009 (now)
Vermont
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Maine
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Nevada*
Washington
Alaska*
New York
Oregon*

2010
California*
Hawaii
Montana*
New Jersey
Colorado*

2011
Wyoming
Delaware
Idaho*
Arizona*

2012
Wisconsin*
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Illinois

2013
Michigan*
Minnesota
Iowa
Ohio*
Utah*
Florida*

2014
New Mexico
North Dakota*
Nebraska*
South Dakota*

2015
Indiana
Virginia*
West Virginia
Kansas*

2016
Missouri*

2018
Texas*

2019
North Carolina
Louisiana*
Georgia*

2020
Kentucky*

2021
South Carolina*
Oklahoma*

2022
Tennessee*
Arkansas*

2023
Alabama*

2024
Mississippi*

The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. In fact, voters in Oregon, Nevada and Alaska (which Sarah Palin aside, is far more libertarian than culturally conservative) might already have second thoughts about the marriage bans that they'd previously passed.

By 2016, only a handful of states in the Deep South would vote to ban gay marriage, with Mississippi being the last one to come around in 2024.

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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

Post by Dardedar »

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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

Post by tmiller51 »

Ah yes, Alabama or Mississippi are always there to keep Arkansas from being on the bottom.
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

Post by Guest »

Darrel wrote:.
.
Poll: 92% Of Iowans Say Gay Marriages Have Had No Impact On Their Lives[/url]
Hehe...Gay....Hehe...Impact....Hehe....Poll......
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

Post by Doug »

Darrel wrote:The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it...By 2016, only a handful of states in the Deep South would vote to ban gay marriage, with Mississippi being the last one to come around in 2024.
DOUG
I don't buy it. I am inclined to think that after a number of states have allowed gay marriage, when a gay couple goes to another state and their marriage is not recognized, there would be a lawsuit that would go all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, and it would find that all states must recognize another state's gay marriage license as valid, and this would hasten the allowance of gay marriage in the remaining states. In other words, I think 2024 is a prediction that is too late.
"We could have done something important Max. We could have fought child abuse or Republicans!" --Oona Hart (played by Victoria Foyt), in the 1995 movie "Last Summer in the Hamptons."
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

Post by Dardedar »

In his article he acknowledges it could go quicker like you say (or take a little longer). I didn't include all of his article.

Still, 2024 is not that far away. The clock is ticking and the bad guys are losing this one fast.
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

Post by Doug »

Darrel wrote:Still, 2024 is not that far away. The clock is ticking and the bad guys are losing this one fast.
DOUG
No doubt that the bad guys are losing, and they are losing faster than they can cope with it. The last part is the only really bad news.
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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DALLAS — A Texas judge cleared the way for two Dallas men to get a divorce, ruling Thursday that Texas' ban on same-sex marriage violates the constitutional guarantee to equal protection under the law.

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott said he'd appeal the ruling, which he labeled an attempt to strike down the ban approved by voters in 2005.

"The laws and constitution of the State of Texas define marriage as an institution involving one man and one woman," Abbott said in a written statement. "Today's ruling purports to strike down that constitutional definition – despite the fact that it was recently adopted by 75 percent of Texas voters."

Abbott has argued that because the state doesn't recognize gay marriage, its courts can't dissolve one through divorce.

District Judge Tena Callahan's ruled Thursday, however, that the court "has jurisdiction to hear a suit for divorce filed by persons legally married in another jurisdiction."

Jennifer Pizer, marriage project director for the New York-based gay rights group Lambda Legal, said it is too early to predict the ultimate implications of the lawsuit, in which neither man is identified.

Read more here.
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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See here.
March 16, 2010

Support for Gay Marriage Is Greater Among College Freshmen Than Americans at Large

College students who describe themselves as politically "far right" arrive on campuses across the country supporting legal same-sex marriage significantly more than do conservative Republicans nationwide, according to new data released by the Higher Education Research Institute at the University of California at Los Angeles.

Twenty-four percent of the most conservative college students say that same-sex couples should have the right to legal marital status, according to the institute's most recent survey of freshmen, conducted last summer and fall. In the nation at large, 14 percent of conservative Republicans support gay marriage, according to a survey conducted last year by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life and the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

National debate over same-sex marriage, including the first gay marriages in the nation's capital this month, prompted the Higher Education Research Institute to prepare the new data, which were presented last week in Chicago at the annual conference of Naspa—Student Affairs Administrators in Higher Education. The institute plans to publish a special report this spring.

Over all, 65 percent of the college freshmen surveyed last fall supported same-sex marriage, compared with 58 percent of Americans 18 to 29 years old and 39 percent of the population nationwide, according to the Pew research groups' study.

...In 2000, 56 percent of entering college students backed it. Four years later, freshmen were 57 percent supportive at the time they enrolled, and by graduation, 69 percent of that entering class supported gay marriage, according to the UCLA research institute.
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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MEXICO CITY — Mexico's Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that all 31 states must recognize same-sex marriages performed in the capital, though its decision does not force those states to begin marrying gay couples in their territory.

In a 9-2 decision, the tribunal cited an article of the constitution requiring states to recognize legal contracts drawn up elsewhere.

See here.

DOUG
This is what is going to happen in the U.S. Our constitution also requires states to recognize legal contracts drawn up in other states.
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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"I'm not a skeptic because I want to believe, I'm a skeptic because I want to know." --Michael Shermer
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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Wow. Three questions and they see it in a whole new light:

http://www.skepticmoney.com/when-did-yo ... mment-7614

Three minute clip.
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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"I'm not a skeptic because I want to believe, I'm a skeptic because I want to know." --Michael Shermer
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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Support for gay marriage takes dramatic leap in California, new poll shows

By Dan Smith and Torey Van Oot
Wednesday, Feb. 29, 2012

A new poll shows gay marriage has arrived in California – in public opinion if not in state lawbooks.

Golden State registered voters now favor same-sex unions by 59 percent to 34 percent, a 25-point gap that is the largest margin of support for the issue in the three-plus decades the Field Poll has been asking the question.

The new Field survey shows support has leapt markedly in the three and a half years since California voters approved Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage, 52.3 percent to 47.7 percent.

The poll showed increases in support virtually across the board – among voters under 64, non-white voters, Catholics, Republicans and nonpartisans.

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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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The last time North Carolina amended their constitution on marriage it was to ban interracial marriage.

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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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Image

Further information here:

A North Carolina Map That Says It All
Posted May 9th, 2012 by Evan Hurst

"It seems painfully simplistic sometimes to merely point out that, the more educated people are, the more likely they are to support marriage equality, and likewise, that a large part of the reason the Religious Right is still able to inflict their brand of hatred on the democratic process is that they prey on the fears of and outright lie to less educated voters, but sometimes it needs to be pointed out. This map, comparing the votes of North Carolinians on Amendment One with the percentage of college educated voters in each county, says it all quite nicely..."

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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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Image

LINK

(Notice this chart is rather out of date)
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Re: Calculating the Year Gay Marriage Wins

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