Scientific Basis for limiting U.S. Immigration.

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L.Wood
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Scientific Basis for limiting U.S. Immigration.

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Overpopulation, excessive immigration spell trouble

By Art Hobson

Saturday, October 24, 2009

FAYETTEVILLE — The planet is getting into serious trouble. Evidence of this is all around.

For example, the Sept. 24 issue of the leading scientific journal “Nature” featured an article titled “A safe operating space for humanity,” by 29 internationally known authors. The article identifies 10 planetary boundaries that, if transgressed, could cause unacceptable environmental change. The boundaries include three that humans have already transgressed: greenhouse gas limits, species extinctions, and interference with the nitrogen cycle. The others, where current trends are pushing us toward dangerous conditions, are interference with the phosphorus cycle, stratospheric ozone depletion, ocean acidification, freshwater consumption, excessive land cover converted to cropland, atmospheric aerosols, and pollution by long-lived chemicals.

It’s remarkable that human population growth drives every one of these trends. For the past two centuries, that growth has proceeded catastrophically. Although it took 7 million years for human numbers to reach 1 billion in 1825, we reached 2 billion just one century later, 6 billion in 1999, and are headed toward 9 billion by 2050. Although this is far beyond the planet’s estimated 2 to 4 billion carrying capacity, we continue to reproduce like rabbits.

As concrete examples, groundwater in northern India, northern China, and the American high plains is seriously and unsustainably declining due to overuse, with ominous implications for food supplies.

A recent paper titled “Reproduction and the carbon legacies of individuals,” published in the peer-reviewed journal “Global Environmental Change,” provides a unique perspective on human reproductive choices. It estimates the extra emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2, the main cause of global warming) that an average individual indirectly causes by choosing to have children. In the United States, an average individual, during his or her lifetime, causes the emission of about 1,600 tons of CO2. But reproductive decisions result in added indirect emissions of over 9,000 tons of CO2 per child. The reason for this large number, nearly six times larger than one individual’s lifetime emissions, is that each child will, on average, have children, and their children will have children, and so forth. “Weighting” each future generation appropriately to take into account that each first generation child came from two parents, each second generation child came from four grandparents, and so forth, we get the long-term multiplier effect of nearly six.

Because different nations have different per-capita lifetime CO2 emissions and different per-capita numbers of children, each nation has a different per-child carbon legacy. For example, one Chinese individual’s lifetime emissions are 300 tons of CO2, while indirect emissions due to reproductive decisions are 1,400 tons per child.

So decisions about how many children to have are surprisingly important for the environment. For example, whereas each American can reduce his or her lifetime CO2 emissions by 150 tons by deciding to drive a car getting 30 miles per gallon instead of one getting20 mpg, he or she can reduce indirect emissions by 9,000 tons by deciding to have two children instead of three. Your biggest environmental decision is the number of children you will have.

In this day and age, the moral decision is surely to stop at two. This guideline wasn’t as clear in the past so we shouldn’t be critical of past generations, but today it’s unmistakable.

Still thinking about CO2 emissions, each American-born child represents eventual emissions of 9,000 tons, whereas each Chinese child represents only 1,400 tons. Each American child is a kind of environmental disaster for the world, because Americans consume so much. In this sense, the United States is the world’s most overpopulated nation.

This argues strongly against continued high levels of immigration into the United States. The U.S. population growth rate is nearly 1 percent per year, an outlandish rate more akin to developing nations than to other rich nations. But two-thirds of the U.S. growth is due to immigrants and their first-generation children. This addition to the U.S. population is a disaster for the world because of each American’s heavy environmental impact. It’s also a disaster for America, where rampant population growth drives a host of social problems. And it’s a disaster for other nations such as Mexico, because most immigrants are good working people looking for a better life - just the people that developing nations need. Finally, the present massive illegal immigration harms the immigrants themselves, who are often cut off from family members, discriminated against and exploited by employers.

The fair and humane way to stop most illegal immigration is workplace enforcement. There’s surely some system of worker identification that preserves civil liberties while stopping the employment of illegal immigrants. Yet the Arkansas Legislature recently defeated a bill to penalize building contractors who knowingly hire illegal immigrants. It’s instructive to note that employers opposed the bill, while labor supported it. Illegal immigrants mean bigger profits for employers but fewer jobs and lower pay for working people.

It’s encouraging that total legal and illegal immigration dropped from 1.8 million in 2006 to 1.5 million in 2007. This is still far too many immigrants, but it’s an improvement that’s been brought about by stepped up enforcement of immigration laws.

The world, and especially the United States, needs to follow their brains instead of their feelings in matters regarding human population. The world is bursting at the seams, and the United States is the worst offender. A good place for the world to begin is by adopting “stop at two” as a moral code for the modern age. A good place for the United States to begin is by reducing legal and illegal immigration. Immigrants are wonderful people, but their numbers are too large.

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"Blessed is the Lord for he avoids Evil just like the Godfather, he delegates."
Betty Bowers
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