The Global Warming Challenge Lives Too!

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Doug
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The Global Warming Challenge Lives Too!

Post by Doug »

A Challenge to Climate Change Skeptics
by Nate Silver
See here.

Selective memory is a powerful thing. I'm not particularly when the fact that it's cool or rainy in your hometown one afternoon became subject for worthwhile blog material, but you have started to see this [distortion of the average temperature] all the time on certain conservative blogs, probably led by the example of Matt Drudge.

Therefore, because I'd like to see more accountability on all sides of this debate and because I'm tired of people who don't understand statistics and because I'd like to make some money, I issue the following challenge.

You are eligible for this challenge if:

1. You live in the United States and provide me with your home address and telephone number (I will provide you with mine) and,
2. You are a regular (at least once weekly) contributor to a political, economics or science blog with an Alexa traffic global ranking of 50,000 or lower.

The reason for the latter requirement is because I want to be able to shame/humiliate you if you back out of the challenge or refuse to pay, as I'd assume you'd do the same with me.

The rules of the challenge are as follows:

1. For each day that the high temperature in your hometown is at least 1 degree Fahrenheit above average, as listed by Weather Underground, you owe me $25. For each day that it is at least 1 degree Fahrenheit below average, I owe you $25.
2. The challenge proceeds in monthly intervals, with the first month being August. At the end of each month, we'll tally up the winning and losing days and the winner writes the loser a check for the balance.
3. The challenge automatically rolls over to the next month until/unless: (i) one party informs the other by the 20th of the previous month that he would like to discontinue the challenge (that is, if you want to discontinue the challenge for September, you'd have to tell me this by August 20th), or (ii) the losing party has failed to pay the winning party in a timely fashion, in which case the challenge may be canceled at the sole discretion of the winning party.

Any takers?
"We could have done something important Max. We could have fought child abuse or Republicans!" --Oona Hart (played by Victoria Foyt), in the 1995 movie "Last Summer in the Hamptons."
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kwlyon
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Re: The Global Warming Challenge Lives Too!

Post by kwlyon »

I don't think anyone is claiming that average temperatures are not increasing. I believe the argument is that this rise in temperature is not caused by human activity. If, in fact, you have someone that denies the global increase in average temperatures, well...they may as well be arguing that the earth is flat.
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Doug
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Re: The Global Warming Challenge Lives Too!

Post by Doug »

kwlyon wrote:I don't think anyone is claiming that average temperatures are not increasing.
DOUG
This guy is offering this challenge because some Republicans are still denying that the Earth is warming, such as Matt Drudge on his website. The challenge specifically mentions John Hinderaker at the popular conservative blog PowerLine, who was saying that he believed that Minneapolis' summer has been so cold that it is like the infamous 1816 "Year Without a Summer." Nate Silver looks at the data and concludes that, in fact, Minneapolis is having a record-tying hot summer. "The average high temperature there since summer began this year has been 82.4 degrees. The average historic high temperature over the same period is ... 82.4 degrees," says Silver.

Yes, Republicans are not above denying the obvious.
"We could have done something important Max. We could have fought child abuse or Republicans!" --Oona Hart (played by Victoria Foyt), in the 1995 movie "Last Summer in the Hamptons."
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Dardedar
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Re: The Global Warming Challenge Lives Too!

Post by Dardedar »

kwlyon wrote:I don't think anyone is claiming that average temperatures are not increasing.
DAR
There are lots of them.
they may as well be arguing that the earth is flat.
DAR
Agreed.

There have been several challenges to GW deniers over the years. Here is one I remember reading on the realclimate site.

And what do we get from the GW deniers types? Garbage like the meaningless kind of "challenges" Kent Hovind used to throw out:

"JunkScience.com's Ultimate Global Warming Challenge

CHALLENGE. $500000 will be awarded to the first person to prove, in a scientific manner, that humans are causing harmful global warming"
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kwlyon
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Re: The Global Warming Challenge Lives Too!

Post by kwlyon »

Doug wrote:
kwlyon wrote:I don't think anyone is claiming that average temperatures are not increasing.
DOUG
This guy is offering this challenge because some Republicans are still denying that the Earth is warming, such as Matt Drudge on his website.
Then I stand by my original assertion...Matt Drudge is either an insane conspiracy theorist or just dumb as a post.
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kwlyon
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Re: The Global Warming Challenge Lives Too!

Post by kwlyon »

Darrel wrote:[
There have been several challenges to GW deniers over the years.
I stand corrected....at some point I will learn to Google before I post....sometimes, like quantum mechanical and relativistic systems, the stupid that exist is just plain counter intuitive. Alas some of it is valid however. Keep in mind that there WAS a great scientific debate regarding the reality of the warming trend just a few years ago. Though the increase in CO2 levels is undeniable the resulting temperature change is comparably minute. However it is quite beyond dispute at this point...there is a VERY evident warming trend. At this point there is not even serious debate regarding the impact of human activity. The general consensus is very firm that WE are indeed at the very least exacerbating this warming trend and with all likelihood are the primary contributors. I don't understand the human propensity to attempt to solve problems through denial. I guess when you believe that spooky sky daddy will ride in on a white horse to save you if everything were to go south there is no real need for concern. Thank you guys for keying me on to this interesting...er....issue.
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Doug
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Re: The Global Warming Challenge Lives Too!

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kwlyon wrote:I stand corrected....at some point I will learn to Google before I post....sometimes, like quantum mechanical and relativistic systems, the stupid that exist is just plain counter intuitive.
DOUG
I once debated a knucklehead on the phone who denied relativistic time dilation. I explained that it had been tested and proven, using atomic clocks and jet airplanes. He replied that doing that was like filling a bag full of water, poking a hole in it to use it to tell the time, and then squeezing the bag. This was one clueless guy. After he blessed me, I replied that I hadn't sneezed, and I hung up on him. I later heard that Michael Shermer, of Skeptic magazine, had also hung up on this guy.
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kwlyon
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Re: The Global Warming Challenge Lives Too!

Post by kwlyon »

Doug wrote:He replied that doing that was like filling a bag full of water, poking a hole in it to use it to tell the time, and then squeezing the bag.
NO NO! This is how you can prove that the earth is less than 6 minutes old! You see if I have a bag of water and it has a hole in the bottom, it will take approximately 6 minutes for the water to run out. As the water has not yet run out, it can be concluded that the earth is less than 6 minutes old.
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