I am afraid it is over

[Ark Billy]

I hate to be a bed wetter- but with Gallup showing the race Romney 51% and Obama just 45% I think the race is over and we must be prepared for the Republithugs to ruin the country... again.

[Dardedar]

I hate to be a bed wetter- but with Gallup showing the race Romney 51% and Obama just 45% I think the race is over and we must be prepared for the Republithugs to ruin the country... again.

No need to wet the bed Billy, righties have been crowing about this one all day but doesn't accomplish what they wish. This Gallup anomaly is largely based upon an extraordinarily outlier result on one poll regarding the woman vote.

See this chart for some context:



http://ww2.politicususa.com/wp-content/ ... -women.png

It's from this article: http://www.politicususa.com/obama-campa ... -poll.html

I've been watching Intrade since about May. Romney's never came within ten points of Obama and currently the split is 65/35 Obama. Other online market prediction engines show even higher likelihood of Obama winning (Betfare etc.). Which incidentally is what Nate has right now.

See also: http://www.nerdwallet.com/markets/election

As this explains, what matters is the swing states, esp. Ohio it seems. Oh, and:

"SurveyUSA has Obama +3 over Romney in Ohio, and has Obama up 57% to 38% over Romney among early voters: LINK

When you get done with that good news, I have more.

[Dardedar]

Oh, more on that Gallup poll here:

About that Gallup Poll

"Today's Gallup 7-day tracker has Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama 51-45. Horrible, right?
First of all, this is all pre-debate stuff. But forget about even that, because look at the poll crosstabs from yesterday's edition (when it was 50-46):

[see chart at link]

Romney's entire advantage in this poll comes from a massive lead in the South. Now sure, some of that may be Florida, but the state-level polling certainly doesn't show that. So Romney is driving up big margins in Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Mississippi and other such presidentially irrelevant states? Good for him! I'm sure that'll be cold comfort as he loses the states that actually matter in the Midwest and West." --ibid